Xanga Survival Speculation Time

Since another week has passed by with no further updates, which is VERY surprising considering we are going into the final week of the pledge drive. I think I’ll do what business and news media LOVE to do when in situations like this: speculate on possible outcomes based on available info, haha. =)

Okay, here’s the latest info:

1) Pledge drive at ~ $37,400 with 478 backers

That amount may appear to be “anemic” but it’s really not so bad going into the final week. The last week is similar to the first in getting a flurry of activity and we are definitely in striking distance with just a few big gun donors if they show up, and this is the most likely time for such a move.

That was the “good” news. Now onto the less promising and cloudy info…..

2) A mass “private messaging” mail has STILL not been sent out.

I find it both funny and sad that almost everyday I see someone on Xanga express either shocked surprise or disbelief that Xanga may be closing down for good, or complete ignorance of the fact.

Just yesterday I asked one of the main moderators/contributors on an ish site what their plans were if Xanga goes down. Their response was basically “I didn’t hear anything about that!” O_0  You look around the site and everything looks like it’s just another day on Xanga- no priority placed warnings or splash pages of the current situation of any kind. So all those who don’t visit the front page or know to look in the bottom corner for news from Xanga, they are completely oblivious to the whole shut down crisis.

3) We were told there would be a software app or notification on which blogs would be transferred over and which would not – still waiting…

4) We were told there would be mock ups of Xanga 2.0 to see – – still waiting…

These are things that normally would NOT be held up for the final week of a pledge drive and shutdown deadline. It takes time for people to react to new information and you want to give them that time to soak it in and answer any questions they may have.

With only a week left, there’s not much time for anything – out of all the weeks – the last week should have been the “silent run” week with everything put in place earlier.

All these delayed activities (if they even happen) point to an ongoing problem of time management. Engineers can be notorious for needing more time than estimated, but the business folks know how critical deadline dates are and prod them on. Keeping the customer informed of any delays as early as possible is critical to keep positive momentum going. It’s clear the business minded side of the pledge drive is MIA.

#2, #3, and #4 are NOT small things, and the fact that these are still “TBD” are red flags something isn’t right.

It’s now time to speculate on possible outcomes for July 15th:

1) The pledge drive ends and Xanga renews/extends it if the goal hasn’t been met.

Odds: Not likely. John said on the phone interview that the date is “hard coded”. Plus it weakens the credibility of the company when they set hard dates, then fail to act on them- especially without any advance notice. The lease where their servers are is expiring, which would limit any extension.

2) The pledge drive gets some “Hail Mary” big donations at the end to pull through and make the goal.

Odds: Possible. This would explain the seemingly “lackadaisical” response from Xanga to date if they knew they had some big gun donors that were going to step in during the last week. However, if this is the case, we should start to see some big moves no later than Wednesday- the mid point of the final week. This translates to being at least in the mid to upper $40k’s by that time.

3) The pledge drive fails and Xanga closes down.

Odds: Also possible. This scenario should enrage all the “super supporters” who have been working a storm and spending much of their time trying to raise funds. Few if any would be willing to argue against the fact that Xanga has been pretty quiet this whole time and could have done much more to help their own cause.

This begs the question, did they even intend to have a “Xanga 2.0”, or was this just going through the motions of just wanting to look like they cared as some have speculated earlier? If the latter, that would be even more of a reason for super supporters to be enraged since the cause was lost and their efforts wasted from the very beginning.

4) The pledge drive fails, and Xanga…doesn’t close and continues working on Xanga 2.0.

Odds: Not likely. The pledge drive was to fund the move from where their servers were located and launch Xanga 2.0. If that were possible without the pledge drive, then why would they hold one in the first place?

So it looks like scenario #2 and #3 are the most likely. For the sake of all the super supporters as well as all those who have no idea of what the current situation is, I hope it winds up being scenario #2. A #3 outcome would not only be disastrous for all the uninformed users who stand to lose their entire work, but a sad and dark ending on Xanga and the reputation of those running Xanga. It would be a sad summary of all the problems that have plagued Xanga these last years of its once bright life. Definitely not a good note to end on.

Now some folks may get upset that I’m bringing up all these negative aspects instead of just “thinking positive thoughts”, but those folks likely don’t understand how businesses work. The negative aspects HAVE to be addressed to people can make intelligent decisions on what to do.

For EVERY company that has failed, there have been a set of ardent supporters who believed in that company no matter what- then express shock and anger when that “faith” didn’t pan out and the company failed anyway. A Company in trouble will rarely tell you when they are on the way out – just look at all the Wall Street and mortgage Banks during the 2008/2009 melt down. The repeated mantra was “Everything is fine, we have things under control…” right up until the point they declared bankruptcy/insolvency and were liquidated.

I don’t look at things from a “faith” based perspective when it comes to business….and neither should anyone.

Into the final stretch we go…

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