Trading Update: Progress Continues On Trading System

Making steady progress in coming up to speed on my modified trading methods.  The more I use it the more I realize it’s the real deal for me. Any trading mistake I make is no longer system related- meaning that the error comes from me failing to properly apply the system.

When properly used, the system provides excellent entries and exit targets with no fear of getting stopped out via whipsaws. As I grow more familiar with it I get a greater awareness of just how accurate it is. Am I excited about this? You bet! I’ve reached the phase where I have made a working and tested system and all that remains is getting proficient, which is happening daily.

I say these things knowing any experienced traders reading this may think “Many traders have claimed they had a ‘working’ system, only to have it not perform as stated.”  If I were reading this blog as a stranger, I’d probably think exactly the same thing, haha. =) Fair enough, but time and performance results will prove me right or wrong.

I have to say though when you have a line on how the market is supposed to move, you really start seeing all the “fake” market moves that trick so many into making bad trades. It’s not like the market is just “random” and hard to figure – it’s actively moving in a way to entice you to make an error. I see the market dance around resistance and support lines to “fake” resistance or support, only to reverse and move in the other direction. Anyone trading on the fly without having a system to keep them grounded is bound to have problems getting accurate reads on market moves.

Here’s Friday’s ES Chart:

Chart of GLOBEX~@ESU4_8_22_14b

When the market opens, the market price moves all over the place with no clear direction. A notable bar is a 7am when prices spike up, reverse, spike down sharply, then jump back towards the center in a span of 2 minutes (candle bar timeframe). Very easy to get whipped out of a position with movement like that. On the other hand, there is a good amount of volatility that can produce good profits if properly traded. There’s almost 10 points difference between the high and low points of the day.

 

 

 

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3 thoughts on “Trading Update: Progress Continues On Trading System

  1. My question may sound a bit naïve but when you make predictions in your trading, do you a) rely on your impression of trends (i.e., you invest a lot of time to have a good visualization of past data) or b) do you try to calculate the future through the past?

    When I do budget forecasts (for the running year), I am very much guided by looking at past trends and adjusting (manually) the future rather than using a sophisticated calculation. So far, I have been good at my “method” but it’s slow and works in a small setting. Probably not suitable for trading.

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    • I see, so if I understand correctly, you’re asking if I tend to focus on past data or future calculations?

      My predictions are based on continuation of past behavior with regard to support and resistance areas. The market is run by humans and humans are creatures of habit. Some may say computers dominate, which is true, but they too are programmed by humans so their behavior also has patterns. After all, there are only so many ways to buy low and sell high. 🙂

      So with charting/analysis I look for the buy/sell patterns I’ve recognized to assist in making decisions when to place trades or invest. Since day trading has a very short timeframe, one has to be much more accurate than someone trading over a longer period of time.

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      • Correct, my question is whether you try to calculate future behavior or whether you try to deduce the future by looking at visualized past data?

        I like your thoughts of computers dominating and yet they are programmed by humans.

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